Copart, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Copart, Inc.

CPRTNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryDiversified Support Services

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $36.07median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$52based on filings through 30 Apr 2026

Market Price $27.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $25.3B

Enterprise Value $21.9B

Shares Outstanding 965.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Copart retains durable strategic advantages from marketplace scale, technology, land capacity, and long-run insurance-volume drivers. Near-term evidence is mixed: fiscal second-quarter 2026 revenue and gross profit declined year over year, while fiscal third-quarter revenue and gross profit returned to modest growth but attributable net income remained slightly below the prior year.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$26.00

Mean target$40.30

High · most bullish analyst$55.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$26.0020%

Insurance vehicle supply weakens, used-vehicle prices deteriorate, or changing insurer and buyer behavior reduces marketplace activity and price realization. Under this scenario, land and technology investment does not generate sufficient incremental volume to offset operating pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$40.3055%

Matches the consensus mean

Copart preserves its marketplace position and returns to moderate growth, but results remain uneven because insurance supply, vehicle prices, and purchasing behavior fluctuate. Fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue and gross-profit growth are treated as an improvement rather than proof of sustained acceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$55.0025%

Insurance vehicle volumes strengthen as population growth, mobility demand, and increasing total-loss frequency outweigh declining accident frequency. Continued investment in land and technology expands capacity and improves marketplace outcomes, producing stronger growth than the modest fiscal third-quarter 2026 improvement.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management identifies marketplace strength, technology, and people as foundations of Copart's operating performance.
Population growth, mobility demand, and increasing total-loss frequency provide potential long-run insurance-volume support.
Investment in land and technology can expand capacity and reinforce marketplace liquidity.

Key Investment Risks

Volatile used-vehicle prices, evolving insurance purchasing behavior, and global trade uncertainty can affect supply, demand, and price realization.
Recent performance has been uneven: fiscal second-quarter 2026 contracted year over year before fiscal third-quarter revenue and gross profit returned to modest growth.
The long-term volume thesis could fail if lower accident frequency outweighs total-loss frequency, population, and mobility trends.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.