Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc

CPSNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomotive Parts & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.68

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $21.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $388.6M

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 17.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CPS) is demonstrating strong operational execution, highlighted by robust safety metrics, high customer scorecard ratings, and solid net new business awards. The company's successful debt refinancing in early 2026 has significantly reduced near-term liquidity risks by extending maturities to 2031. However, the company continues to face headwinds from unfavorable production volume and mix, general cost inflation, and high leverage. While the long-term transition toward electrified and hybrid vehicle platforms presents a structural growth opportunity, near-term profitability remains constrained, justifying a Hold recommendation until consistent positive free cash flow generation is established.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.00

Mean target$44.33

High · most bullish analyst$53.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case is triggered by prolonged macroeconomic weakness, high interest rates, or geopolitical disruptions that depress global light vehicle sales. Severe volume and mix headwinds, combined with persistent raw material and labor inflation, compress operating margins. The company struggles to generate positive free cash flow, leading to elevated leverage metrics and renewed liquidity concerns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes global light vehicle production remains relatively flat to slightly positive. Cooper-Standard successfully leverages its lean manufacturing initiatives and purchasing efficiencies to offset inflationary pressures, achieving gradual margin expansion. Net new business awards continue to track toward the full-year target of over $400 million, driven by strong EV and hybrid platform wins. Refinancing benefits materialize through reduced annual cash interest, keeping liquidity stable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Cooper-Standard is undergoing a structural margin recovery driven by commercial repricing (raising hurdle rates by 500 bps in 2022) and cost-saving initiatives. The company successfully refinanced its $1.1B debt wall, extending maturities to 2031 and removing near-term credit risk. Furthermore, its shift toward hybrid and electric vehicles increases content per vehicle (fluid handling content rises 50-80% on hybrids vs. ICE), while rapid expansion with domestic Chinese OEMs (COEMs) provides a strong forward earnings driver.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational execution with 99% green customer scorecards for quality/service and 97% green for new program launches.
Successful debt refinancing in Q1 2026 that extended major maturities to 2031 and reduced annual cash interest by approximately $6 million.
Robust pipeline of net new business awards, with a significant portion aligned with high-growth battery electric and hybrid vehicle platforms.
Industry-leading safety performance with a total incident rate of 0.18, well below the world-class benchmark of 0.47.

Key Investment Risks

High leverage and debt service requirements despite the successful refinancing completed in Q1 2026.
Exposure to cyclical automotive production volumes and unfavorable customer platform mix.
Persistent inflationary pressures across labor, energy, and raw materials that can compress operating margins.
Execution risks associated with footprint optimization and ongoing global restructuring programs.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the full-year 2026 target of over $400 million in net new business awards.
A significant drop in customer scorecard ratings below 95% green, indicating operational or quality disruptions.
Inability to generate positive free cash flow for the full year 2026, leading to cash burn and liquidity pressure.
Net leverage ratio rising above 5.0x due to EBITDA compression.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.