Constellium SE Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryAluminum Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $63.13median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$113based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $24.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 156% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+156%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 137.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Constellium SE (NYSE: CSTM) is executing a powerful operational turnaround, transitioning from a volatile commodity-exposed player to a high-value downstream aluminum fabricator and recycler. The company's strategic focus on secular growth markets—specifically aerospace recovery, lightweight automotive rolled products, and closed-loop recycling—is driving record profitability. By voluntarily transitioning to U.S. GAAP and USD reporting, CSTM has enhanced its comparability with domestic peers, paving the way for multiple expansion. Despite macroeconomic volatility, the company's raised 2026 guidance and newly authorized $300 million share buyback program highlight strong cash generation and a commitment to shareholder returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.19 Mean target$37.94 High · most bullish analyst$40.69 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a severe macroeconomic slowdown in Europe and North America, leading to a sharp contraction in automotive and industrial demand. Persistent inflationary pressures on labor and energy, combined with a narrowing of scrap spreads, squeeze margins. Under this scenario, Adjusted EBITDA (excluding lag) falls to $750 million, and free cash flow drops below $150 million, forcing the company to pause its share buyback program to preserve liquidity and maintain its leverage target. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that robust demand in aerospace and packaging end-markets persists through 2026. Constellium successfully capitalizes on supply shortages of automotive rolled products in North America and favorable scrap metal dynamics. Operational execution at the newly expanded Neuf-Brisach recycling center continues to ramp up, driving down Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity while improving margins. The company achieves its raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (excluding metal price lag) of $900 million to $940 million and generates free cash flow in excess of $275 million, supporting the execution of its $300 million share buyback program. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |