Constellation Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryIndependent Power Producers and Energy Traders Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $301.99median of 6 methods · middle span $185-$528based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $258.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $91.7B Enterprise Value $110.5B Shares Outstanding 357M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Constellation has strong operating momentum, reflected in higher second-quarter adjusted operating EPS, raised 2026 guidance, new long-duration nuclear power agreements and regulatory progress toward restarting Crane. A Hold recommendation balances those strengths against unfavorable nuclear outages, Calpine integration requirements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$290.00 Mean target$348.45 High · most bullish analyst$441.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $290.0020% Additional nuclear outages or Calpine integration problems cause earnings to fall below guidance, while Crane slips beyond 2027 and anticipated value from new long-term contracts takes longer to emerge. Completion risk also remains around the DOJ-dependent Brazos Valley divestiture. Base CaseCentral scenario $348.4556% Matches the consensus meanConstellation delivers adjusted operating EPS within its $11.50-$12.50 2026 guidance range, progressively integrates Calpine, maintains broadly stable fleet performance and advances Crane toward a 2027 restart. Bull CaseUpside scenario $441.0024% Constellation exceeds its raised 2026 earnings range, integrates Calpine without material disruption, converts its expanded generation portfolio into sustained commercial gains, and restarts Crane during 2027. The additional 920 MW of long-term nuclear agreements improves earnings visibility beyond the current guidance period. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |