Constellation Brands Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Constellation Brands Inc

STZNYSE

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryDistillers & Vintners

Beta (adjusted)0.61

Intrinsic Value $213.83median of 6 methods · middle span $193-$253based on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $112.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 89% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+89%)

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Market Cap $19.3B

Enterprise Value $29.4B

Shares Outstanding 170.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date6 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Constellation Brands retains a high-quality U.S. imported-beer franchise and reported a 39.0% comparable Beer operating margin in the first quarter of Fiscal 2027. However, Beer depletions declined 0.3% even as shipments increased 1.8%, consolidated net sales declined 3% following portfolio divestitures, and management identified continued consumer, tariff, and socioeconomic pressures. The exclusively higher-end Wine and Spirits portfolio produced 6.6% organic depletion growth, while the restructuring program is expected to produce more than USD 200 million of annualized savings by Fiscal 2028. These offsetting factors support a neutral stance pending evidence that Beer consumer takeaway returns to sustainable growth under the new chief executive.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$115.00

Mean target$170.83

High · most bullish analyst$209.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$115.0024%

Persistent negative Beer depletions confirm weakening consumer demand, shipment growth creates channel imbalance, and adverse mix, materials costs, tariffs, or weaker operating leverage push Beer margins below the first-quarter level. Restructuring savings fall short of the stated Fiscal 2028 objective, while the smaller Wine and Spirits business cannot offset Beer weakness.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$170.8357%

Matches the consensus mean

Beer net sales continue to grow modestly while depletion trends remain near flat, with pricing, productivity, and the restructuring program supporting margins. Wine and Spirits remains substantially smaller after divestitures but contributes organic growth from its higher-end portfolio. Execution under Nicholas Fink is broadly stable, but consumer pressure limits a rapid reacceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$209.0019%

Beer depletions return to positive growth and converge with shipment growth, pricing and efficiency measures preserve the segment's approximately 39% comparable operating margin, and the company realizes more than USD 200 million of annualized restructuring savings by Fiscal 2028. Continued organic growth from the repositioned higher-end Wine and Spirits portfolio would add diversification.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Constellation reported that Modelo Especial remained the number-one U.S. beer brand by dollar sales and that the company was the leading dollar-share gainer in the overall U.S. beer market for the 52 weeks ended May 31, 2026.
The Beer segment generated a 39.0% comparable operating margin in the first quarter of Fiscal 2027, while the restructuring initiative is expected to produce more than USD 200 million of net annualized savings by Fiscal 2028.

Key Investment Risks

First-quarter Fiscal 2027 Beer depletions declined 0.3% while shipments increased 1.8%, creating a risk that shipments are temporarily outpacing consumer takeaway.
Management cited economic uncertainty, value-seeking behavior, tariffs, materials costs, weather exposure, and the April 2026 chief-executive transition as factors that could affect execution and results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.