Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Con Edison offers defensive regulated-utility exposure, reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00-$6.20 per share, a continuing common dividend, and a substantial reliability and resilience investment program. The balanced view reflects execution and regulatory-recovery requirements, customer-affordability pressure, extreme-weather exposure, and potential dilution from the $2 billion at-the-market equity program.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$94.00
Mean target$110.97
High · most bullish analyst$130.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$94.0024%

The adverse case assumes guidance is reduced, regulatory recovery lags spending, customer-affordability constraints intensify, or equity issuance materially dilutes per-share growth. Extreme heat and other severe weather could also increase operating and capital requirements.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$110.9755%
Matches the consensus mean

The modal case assumes Con Edison delivers within its reaffirmed $6.00-$6.20 adjusted EPS guidance, continues reliability and resilience investment, and funds capital requirements through a combination that may include the announced ATM program. Dividend continuity supports the case, but regulatory, affordability, financing, and execution constraints limit conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$130.0021%

The favorable case assumes results remain within the upper portion of reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, rate-base investment produces timely regulated returns, and reliability spending supports demand growth and electrification without material cost disallowances.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00-$6.20 and reported first-half adjusted EPS of $3.00.
  • The company declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.8875 per share, payable September 15, 2026.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Con Edison's regulated utilities depend on rate plans and regulatory recovery to earn returns on substantial infrastructure investment.
  • The $2 billion ATM equity program can fund subsidiary capital requirements but creates potential dilution for existing shareholders.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.