Conagra Brands Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)0.31 Intrinsic Value $25.22median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $13.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 91% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+91%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.3B Enterprise Value $13.3B Shares Outstanding 479M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date18 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Conagra enters fiscal 2027 in a reset year. Fiscal 2026 organic net sales declined 0.4%, adjusted operating margin fell to 11.3%, and adjusted EPS was $1.72. Management's fiscal 2027 guidance calls for a further 1% to 3% organic-sales decline, a 10.0% to 10.5% adjusted operating margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.50 while it invests in brands and the supply chain, simplifies operations and seeks to restore margins. The offsetting positives are category-level volume-share gains, a 11.9% reduction in net debt during fiscal 2026, and meaningful free cash flow. However, the approximately $2 billion fourth-quarter goodwill and brand impairments, weaker underlying earnings outlook and reduction of the annualized dividend to $0.70 indicate that execution risk remains elevated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$14.38 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0025% Volume weakness, unfavorable operating leverage and input-cost pressure overwhelm productivity and reinvestment benefits. Organic sales fall below guidance, adjusted operating margin drops below 10%, and net leverage rises above the approximately 4.0x year-end expectation, limiting financial flexibility after the dividend reduction. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.3855% Matches the consensus meanResults remain within management's fiscal 2027 ranges: organic net sales decline 1% to 3%, adjusted operating margin is 10.0% to 10.5%, and adjusted EPS is $1.40 to $1.50. Reinvestment and simplification begin stabilizing the business, but benefits are insufficient to produce near-term earnings growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.0020% Brand and supply-chain reinvestment gains traction faster than expected, productivity offsets inflation, and category share gains translate into improving volume. Fiscal 2027 organic sales and adjusted operating margin finish at or above the favorable ends of management's guidance while free-cash-flow conversion supports deleveraging. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |