Compx International Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $20.84median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$33based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $36.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $449.2M Enterprise Value $396.8M Shares Outstanding 13.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CompX International Inc. (CIX) is a stable, highly profitable manufacturer of security products and recreational marine components with a strong balance sheet characterized by zero debt and substantial cash reserves. The company's investment appeal is anchored by its robust dividend profile, including a regular quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share and a history of special dividends. However, its growth is modest, and it faces raw material cost volatility and high customer concentration (with the USPS representing 26% of sales). Given its controlled company structure (majority-owned by NL Industries, Inc.) and low trading volume, a Hold recommendation is warranted as it remains a reliable income generator with limited near-term capital appreciation catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Significant downturns in the U.S. manufacturing sector or transportation markets reduce demand for security products. Severe volatility or sharp increases in zinc, brass, or stainless steel prices compress gross margins, while a reduction in USPS procurement materially impacts the top line. Base CaseCentral scenario The company maintains its stable market share in cabinet locks and marine components, successfully mitigating raw material price fluctuations through strategic spot buys and pricing adjustments. Net sales grow modestly in the low single digits, and the company continues to pay its regular $0.30 quarterly dividend, supported by solid cash flows. Bull CaseUpside scenario CompX International offers a highly resilient, cash-generative micro-cap business model with a fortress-like balance sheet featuring zero debt and substantial net cash. The bull case is supported by a cyclical recovery and stabilization in the Marine Components segment (which saw a pronounced rebound in late 2025), steady demand for its niche Security Products driven by secular trends in e-commerce and smart/keyless locks, and a strong history of returning capital to shareholders through consistent dividend payments. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |