Compass Pathways Plc ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Compass Pathways Plc ADR

CMPSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Care Facilities

Beta (adjusted)2.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $11.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.7B

Enterprise Value $1.3B

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

COMPASS Pathways is the clear frontrunner in the psychedelic medicine revolution, with its lead candidate COMP360 (synthetic psilocybin) having successfully met primary endpoints in two consecutive Phase 3 trials (COMP005 and COMP006) for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Backed by a rolling NDA submission, a Commissioner's National Priority Review Voucher (CNPV) that could compress the FDA review timeline to 1-2 months, and a robust cash position of $466 million providing runway into 2028, the company is uniquely positioned to achieve the first-ever FDA approval of a classic psychedelic. While binary clinical and regulatory risks remain, the massive unmet need in TRD and the established infrastructure of interventional psychiatry clinics (such as those delivering Spravato) provide a highly compelling commercial launchpad.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$13.00

Mean target$23.75

High · most bullish analyst$65.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

COMP006 Part B durability data shows a high rate of relapse or unexpected serious adverse events (such as elevated suicidal ideation), severely damaging the drug's safety profile. The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or imposes highly restrictive REMS requirements that limit administration to a very small subset of clinics, delaying commercialization and accelerating cash burn.

Base CaseCentral scenario

COMP360 demonstrates strong 26-week durability in the COMP006 Part B readout in early Q3 2026. The company successfully completes its rolling NDA submission in Q4 2026. Utilizing the CNPV, the FDA grants approval for COMP360 in TRD by early 2027, followed by rapid DEA rescheduling and a commercial launch in mid-2027 leveraging existing Spravato-certified interventional clinics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pioneering position with two successful Phase 3 trials completed for COMP360 in TRD, demonstrating rapid onset and durable efficacy.
Significant regulatory tailwinds including FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation, rolling NDA submission, and receipt of a Commissioner's National Priority Review Voucher (CNPV).
Strong balance sheet with $466 million in cash as of Q1 2026, securing operational runway well beyond launch and into 2028.
Highly scalable commercial model designed to integrate into the existing network of over 7,500 interventional psychiatry sites currently delivering Spravato.

Key Investment Risks

Binary clinical risk associated with the upcoming COMP006 Part B 26-week durability data readout in early Q3 2026.
Regulatory and scheduling hurdles, as psilocybin remains a Schedule I controlled substance and requires DEA rescheduling post-FDA approval.
Operational bottlenecks at treatment centers due to the multi-hour supervised administration requirement of psychedelic therapies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of COMP006 Part B to demonstrate durable efficacy or the emergence of severe safety signals.
FDA refusal to file or rejection of the COMP360 NDA.
Significant delays in federal rescheduling of psilocybin or failure to secure favorable reimbursement codes from payers.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.