Compass Minerals International Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryOther Industrial Metals & Mining Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $25.61median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $915.6M Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 42.6M diluted Moat Rating None Last ex-dividend8 Mar 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Compass Minerals is executing a strategic pivot back to its core strengths under its 'Back-to-Basics' framework. The company has successfully transformed its balance sheet by retiring $150 million of senior unsecured notes due in 2027 ahead of schedule and completing the sale of its non-core Wynyard SOP business. While operational efficiency at the Goderich mine is improving—supported by a newly ratified three-year collective bargaining agreement—top-line growth remains highly sensitive to seasonal winter weather patterns and deicing salt demand. Given the balanced risk-reward profile, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the durability of its margin recovery and further deleveraging progress. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$27.00 Mean target$31.50 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.0020% An unseasonably mild winter severely depresses highway deicing salt demand, leading to high inventory carryover and downward pressure on bid-season pricing. Operational setbacks or labor friction at key mining facilities disrupt production, while high interest rates or persistent leverage limit financial flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.5050% Matches the consensus meanCompass Minerals achieves its maintained full-year fiscal 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $212 million to $236 million. Salt segment performance remains stable with moderate pricing gains offsetting minor volume fluctuations, while the Plant Nutrition segment delivers steady results. The company continues its steady debt reduction path, keeping leverage manageable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.0030% Sustained above-average winter snowfall across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions drives robust highway deicing salt volumes and pricing gains. Continued operational efficiency improvements at the Goderich mine lower unit costs, while the Plant Nutrition segment continues to deliver strong margins at Ogden. Rapid deleveraging below a 3.0x leverage ratio unlocks capital for strategic growth initiatives. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |