Compass Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)1.89 Intrinsic Value $5.39median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7B Enterprise Value $9.4B Shares Outstanding 839.8M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Compass is executing well after the Anywhere merger: Q2 pro forma revenue grew 14.3%, Brokerage gross transaction value grew 15.9% against 6% market growth, Adjusted EBITDA reached $363 million, and management actioned its original $300 million first-year synergy target five months early. The combination also adds high-margin franchise operations and broader integrated services. These strengths are balanced by $3.14 billion of long-term debt, substantially higher interest expense, integration complexity, housing-market cyclicality, and the need to retain productive agents while consolidating operations. The resulting risk-reward is balanced rather than decisively attractive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$15.42 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0020% The bear case assumes weak housing turnover persists, agent retention deteriorates beyond planned low-productivity separations, integration costs or operational disruption offset synergies, and debt service limits financial flexibility. Under this outcome, the enlarged fixed-cost and debt structure would magnify the effect of lower transaction activity. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.4255% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Compass delivers within Q3 guidance, realizes approximately $220 million of 2026 net cost synergies, remains free-cash-flow positive for 2026, and continues modest market-share gains while housing activity remains subdued. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% The bull case assumes sustained Brokerage market-share gains, successful rollout of the Home platform across acquired brokerages and then franchises, realization of the full $500 million three-year synergy opportunity, continued positive free cash flow, and execution of the intended 2027 redemption of the $500 million 9.75% notes. A housing recovery would add operating leverage across Brokerage, Franchise, and Integrated Services. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |