Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA ADR

BVNNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryOther Precious Metals & Mining

Beta (adjusted)0.63

Intrinsic Value $20.91median of 6 methods · middle span $14-$24based on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $31.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8B

Enterprise Value $8.2B

Shares Outstanding 254M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Apr 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Buenaventura is transitioning from a heavy capital expenditure phase to a production ramp-up phase, driven by its flagship San Gabriel gold project and the high-grade Yumpag silver mine. While the company benefits from a strong cyclical upswing in global gold, silver, and copper prices, and maintains a robust net cash position supported by consistent dividend inflows from its 19.58% stake in Cerro Verde, the stock has already experienced a massive multi-year run. Near-term execution risks, permitting timelines, and localized cost inflation (such as a 50% increase in diesel costs) warrant a neutral stance at current valuation levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$27.40

Mean target$37.78

High · most bullish analyst$50.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects operational delays at San Gabriel due to geomechanical rock quality challenges or clay-related processing issues, alongside potential permitting delays for Yumpag's extraction expansion. A sharp correction in global metal prices or severe localized cost inflation would compress margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes successful execution of the San Gabriel ramp-up to 2,000 tpd by late 2026 and the expansion of Yumpag to 1,200 tpd following expected 3Q26 approvals. Strong commodity prices support elevated margins, and Cerro Verde continues to distribute steady dividends, keeping Buenaventura net cash positive.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong near-term production catalysts from the commercial start-up of San Gabriel and expansion of Yumpag.
Robust balance sheet with a net cash positive position and significant dividend inflows from Cerro Verde.
High leverage to a favorable global commodity price environment for gold, silver, and copper.

Key Investment Risks

Technical and geomechanical challenges at San Gabriel, where 90% of the rock mass is classified as poor quality.
Permitting and regulatory risks in Peru, which have historically delayed project timelines.
Sensitivity to localized cost inflation, particularly energy and labor costs.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve stable 2,000 tpd throughput at San Gabriel by the end of 2026.
A material drop in global copper prices below $4.00/lb, significantly reducing Cerro Verde's dividend capacity.
Rejection or significant delay of the Yumpag mine plan modification in 3Q26.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.