Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ADR

CSNA3B3

SectorMaterials

IndustrySteel

Beta (adjusted)1.20

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.5B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Nov 2024

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

National Steel Co (Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional - CSN) presents a mixed investment profile. While the company benefits from strong vertical integration across steel, mining, cement, logistics, and energy, its financial performance is heavily pressured by high leverage and substantial net financial expenses. The company reported a consolidated net loss of R$1.51 billion for 2025 despite a slight increase in net revenue to R$44.8 billion. Management has initiated a major structured divestment program aiming to raise R$15-18 billion to aggressively deleverage the group toward a 1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA target. Until these asset sales materialize and successfully reduce the interest burden, the stock is expected to perform in line with the market, justifying a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$0.90

Mean target$1.20

High · most bullish analyst$1.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Divestment plans face regulatory or execution delays, leaving the company burdened with high interest expenses. Continued high interest rates in Brazil and intense competition from cheap steel imports further compress margins, leading to wider net losses and deteriorating liquidity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully executes a portion of its structured asset sales, gradually reducing its net debt from R$41.2 billion. Steel margins stabilize around 10% as domestic demand in Brazil recovers and anti-dumping measures take effect, while the mining and logistics segments continue to provide stable cash flow contributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly integrated business model spanning steel, mining, cement, logistics, and energy, providing a world-class cost structure.
Strong market position as one of the largest flat steel producers in Latin America and a major iron ore exporter.
Clear strategic commitment to deleveraging through a structured R$15-18 billion asset divestment program.

Key Investment Risks

High financial leverage with Net Debt to LTM EBITDA at 3.47x as of year-end 2025, leading to heavy interest expenses.
Exposure to volatile global commodity prices, particularly iron ore and steel.
Execution risk associated with the timing and valuation of planned asset sales.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to execute any major asset sales under the divestment program within the next 12 months.
Leverage ratio rising significantly above 3.5x Net Debt to EBITDA.
A severe downturn in global iron ore prices or a sharp increase in cheap steel imports into Brazil.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.