Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo ADR Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Water Beta (adjusted)0.38 Intrinsic Value $3.03median of 5 methods · middle span $1-$4based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $5.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.5B Shares Outstanding 3.5B diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Buy. Sabesp's accelerated universalization program targets 2029 and is supported by approximately R$70 billion of planned investment for 2024-2029. July 2026 data showed urban water and sewage additions already above their U-Factor targets, although informal and rural connections and new sewage-treatment units remained below target. Issuer-reported analyst coverage was unanimously Buy across 15 institutions on August 24, 2026. Scenario prices and the consensus anchor below are stated in Brazilian reais because Sabesp's official coverage table reports target prices as TP (R$); an SBS ADR investor's USD return also depends on BRL/USD movements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.28 Mean target$6.76 High · most bullish analyst$7.60 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.2820% Bear case: persistent shortfalls in informal and rural connections or sewage-treatment expansion, potentially compounded by weaker credit standing, limit rerating. The R$31.00 scenario equals the lowest target in Sabesp's August 24, 2026 issuer-published analyst table. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.7655% Matches the consensus meanBase case: Sabesp continues progressing toward 2029 universalization, but the three lagging July 2026 workstreams require sustained execution. The R$35.05 target is the rounded arithmetic mean of the 15 target prices in Sabesp's August 24, 2026 analyst-coverage table. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.6025% Bull case: execution closes the remaining universalization gaps while already-overachieved urban connection programs demonstrate delivery capacity. The R$40.00 scenario equals the highest target in Sabesp's August 24, 2026 issuer-published analyst table. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |