Commvault Systems Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Commvault Systems Inc

CVLTNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $118.28median of 6 methods · middle span $86-$191based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $147.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.1B

Enterprise Value $6.1B

Shares Outstanding 41.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Commvault Systems is successfully executing its transition to a high-margin, recurring subscription and SaaS-based business model, anchored by its unified Commvault Cloud platform. Despite a temporary stock pullback in early 2026 due to SaaS ARR deceleration concerns and a pending securities class action, the company's underlying fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Commvault ended fiscal 2026 with record free cash flow and robust subscription ARR growth. The company is highly positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds in cyber resilience, hybrid cloud data protection, and AI-driven workload security, making it an attractive target for both public investors and potential acquirers.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$130.00

Mean target$161.15

High · most bullish analyst$200.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$130.00

Macroeconomic headwinds extend enterprise sales cycles for hybrid cloud migrations, causing subscription ARR growth to fall below guidance. Intense competition from legacy backup vendors and cloud-native peers limits new customer acquisition. Legal risks escalate if the securities class action leads to substantial damages or prolonged negative publicity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$161.15

Matches the consensus mean

Commvault steadily delivers on its fiscal 2027 guidance, achieving subscription ARR of $1.20B to $1.21B and maintaining non-GAAP EBIT margins around 20.5%. The company continues to return capital aggressively through share buybacks (allocating ~60% of free cash flow), and the legal overhang from the securities class action is resolved without material financial damage.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$200.00

Accelerated enterprise adoption of the Commvault Cloud platform and Metallic SaaS offerings drives subscription ARR past fiscal 2027 guidance. Strong cross-selling of identity resilience and Active Directory protection solutions expands net new ARR. Furthermore, exploratory sale talks with private equity firms (e.g., Thoma Bravo) or strategic buyers culminate in a premium buyout.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong transition to high-margin recurring revenue, with subscription and SaaS representing the vast majority of ARR.
Consistent operational execution, delivering 20%+ non-GAAP EBIT and free cash flow margins.
Secular tailwinds in cyber resilience and AI-driven data protection, with identity security acting as a key cross-sell driver.
Aggressive capital return program, including substantial share repurchases.
Potential valuation upside from ongoing strategic sale and takeover exploration.

Key Investment Risks

Legal overhang and reputational risk from the ongoing securities class action lawsuit.
Macroeconomic sensitivity that could prolong enterprise IT purchasing and upgrade cycles.
Intense competition in the data protection, backup, and recovery software market.
Execution risks associated with the rapid shift from traditional on-premises licenses to SaaS contracts.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Subscription ARR growth decelerating significantly below the guided 18% to 19% range for fiscal 2027.
Non-GAAP EBIT margins falling consistently below 20%.
A major adverse ruling or material financial settlement in the pending securities class action.
Termination of strategic sale talks without a viable alternative catalyst for valuation re-rating.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.