Community Bancorp Inc Vermont Dossier - Source-backed chat

Community Bancorp Inc Vermont

CMTVNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.60

Intrinsic Value $19.77median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $42.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-53%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $236.9M

Enterprise Value $260.2M

Shares Outstanding 5.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Community Bancorp (NASDAQ: CMTV) is a solid, highly profitable regional bank holding company operating in Vermont and New Hampshire. The company recently achieved a major milestone by uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market in February 2026 and joining the ABA Nasdaq Community Bank Index in June 2026. CMTV exhibits strong financial performance, highlighted by a robust net interest margin of 3.8%, a return on average equity of 15.3%, and stable asset quality with non-performing assets at 0.75%. However, the stock has experienced a significant run-up, trading near its 52-week high of $42.92. Given the lack of formal analyst coverage and the potential headwinds from persistent deposit competition and elevated funding costs, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the current valuation fairly reflects its strong operational execution.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$34.0020%

The bear case is triggered by intense regional competition for deposits, forcing CMTV to raise deposit rates and compress its net interest margin below 3.5%. Additionally, a localized economic downturn in northern New England could lead to rising credit defaults, increasing non-performing assets and requiring higher loan loss provisions that would depress net income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$41.5050%

The base case assumes stable loan growth of 3-5% annually, steady asset quality with NPAs remaining below 0.80%, and a stable net interest margin around 3.7%-3.8%. The bank maintains its consistent dividend payout (currently $0.34 per share quarterly) and leverages its Nasdaq listing to attract a broader base of retail and institutional community bank investors.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$46.0030%

The bull case is driven by continued loan portfolio expansion, successful integration and growth of its 50% owned subsidiary Community Financial Services Group (CFSG) generating strong non-interest income, and increased stock liquidity from its recent Nasdaq uplisting. If net interest margins expand further due to disciplined deposit pricing and loan yields rise, earnings power will accelerate.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong profitability metrics with a 1.42% Return on Average Assets and 15.3% Return on Average Equity as of Q1 2026.
Recent uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market (February 2026) and inclusion in the ABA Nasdaq Community Bank Index (June 2026) significantly enhance stock liquidity and market visibility.
Consistent dividend history, recently declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share in June 2026.
Solid asset quality with non-performing assets representing only 0.75% of total assets.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competition for deposits in the New England market could drive up funding costs and compress net interest margins.
Geographic concentration in Vermont and New Hampshire makes the bank vulnerable to localized economic downturns.
Lack of formal Wall Street analyst coverage and guidance may limit near-term institutional interest and lead to stock price volatility.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Interest Margin compression below 3.5% due to rising deposit costs.
A sharp increase in non-performing assets exceeding 1.0% of total assets.
A reduction or suspension of the quarterly cash dividend.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.