Comfort Systems USA Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Comfort Systems USA Inc

FIXNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Beta (adjusted)1.46

Intrinsic Value $1,727.36median of 6 methods · middle span $303-$5,902based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,685.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $59.3B

Enterprise Value $57.5B

Shares Outstanding 35.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Comfort Systems USA entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue was $3.27 billion, diluted EPS was $12.53, and backlog reached $14.06 billion versus $8.12 billion one year earlier. These results provide substantial forward workload visibility, but the unusually large order book also raises execution, staffing, scheduling, and project-timing exposure. The resulting stance is Hold rather than Buy despite the favorable operating evidence.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1,910.00

Mean target$2,210.86

High · most bullish analyst$2,500.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1,910.0018%

Backlog declines below the December 2025 level, project timing or execution deteriorates, and revenue and earnings momentum weakens materially.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$2,210.8656%

Matches the consensus mean

Growth moderates from the exceptional second-quarter pace, but the $14.06 billion backlog supports continued activity while execution remains sound.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$2,500.0026%

Backlog remains near its June 2026 level or increases, project conversion remains orderly, and the company sustains the strong revenue and earnings execution demonstrated in the second quarter.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Backlog reached $14.06 billion at June 30, 2026, compared with $12.45 billion at March 31, 2026 and $8.12 billion at June 30, 2025.
Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $3.27 billion and diluted EPS reached $12.53, versus $2.17 billion and $6.53, respectively, in the prior-year quarter.

Key Investment Risks

The $14.06 billion backlog creates a substantial execution burden; labor availability, scheduling, procurement, and job-cost discipline must scale with the order book.
Backlog is not equivalent to realized revenue or cash flow, so project delays, scope changes, cancellations, or slower conversion could cause reported results to diverge from the apparent workload.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.