Columbia Banking System Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Columbia Banking System Inc

COLBNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $28.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $8.1B

Shares Outstanding 318.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Columbia entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating leverage, completed Pacific Premier cost synergies, lower deposit costs, solid commercial relationship growth and ample regulatory capital. These positives are balanced by sequential contraction in loans and deposits, increased reliance on borrowings, a modest rise in non-performing assets and a net interest margin that declined to 3.93%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.00

Mean target$34.14

High · most bullish analyst$37.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$30.0019%

Deposit competition and outflows require greater wholesale funding, margin pressure intensifies, and commercial-real-estate or broader commercial credit migration raises provisions and constrains capital returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$34.1458%

Matches the consensus mean

Net interest margin remains broadly resilient near the second-quarter level, acquisition savings and commercial growth offset much of the intentional balance-sheet runoff, and credit costs remain manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$37.0023%

Funding costs continue to decline, commercial relationship growth replaces lower-return runoff, fee momentum persists and completed Pacific Premier synergies produce durable operating leverage without meaningful credit deterioration.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pacific Premier systems conversion, branch consolidations and the previously disclosed cost-savings program were essentially complete by June 30, 2026, reducing integration execution risk.
Commercial loans, including owner-occupied commercial real estate, grew at a 5% annualized rate during the second quarter, while deposit campaigns generated substantial new relationship balances.
Capital and liquidity remained substantial: estimated CET1 was 11.6%, and available liquidity equaled 39% of assets and 125% of uninsured deposits at June 30, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Deposits declined to $52.1 billion from $53.5 billion sequentially, while borrowings increased to $4.3 billion from $3.4 billion.
Non-performing assets increased to 0.42% of assets from 0.40%, and non-performing loans and leases increased to 0.57% of loans from 0.55%.
Net interest margin declined three basis points to 3.93%, and total loans and leases declined 1% sequentially amid intentional runoff and elevated commercial-real-estate payoffs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.