Collective Mining Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Collective Mining Ltd

CNLToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryGold

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $12.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $991.6M

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Collective Mining Ltd. represents a high-conviction precious and base metals exploration play in Colombia's Middle Cauca Belt. Led by the proven management team that built and sold Continental Gold to Zijin Mining for $2 billion, the company is aggressively advancing its flagship Guayabales project. Backed by a strong cash position of US$ 113.3 million and a strategic 14.99% equity stake from Agnico Eagle, Collective is fully funded to execute its massive 100,000-meter 2026 drilling program. The discovery of the high-grade Ramp Zone at depth and the outcropping oxidized zone at Northern Apollo significantly de-risks the asset ahead of a highly anticipated maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in mid-2027.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$25.00

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0020%

Exploration drilling at depth fails to extend high-grade mineralization, or metallurgical recoveries prove complex. Political headwinds or regulatory delays in Colombia stall permitting for the exploration adit, leading to capital preservation measures and dilutive financing under the shelf prospectus.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$25.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

Collective successfully executes its 100,000-meter drill program, confirming high-grade continuity at the Ramp Zone and Northern Apollo. The company breaks ground on the exploration adit in Q4 2026 and delivers a robust maiden Mineral Resource Estimate of 5 to 8 million gold-equivalent ounces in mid-2027, solidifying its valuation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0030%

Aggressive drilling expands the Apollo system's footprint beyond 10 million gold-equivalent ounces, while greenfield targets like Trap and Plutos yield major porphyry discoveries. Rapid permitting and strong community relations accelerate the transition to development, attracting a premium buyout offer from strategic partner Agnico Eagle or another major producer.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

World-Class Management: Founded and led by the team behind Continental Gold, possessing unmatched operational and permitting expertise in Colombia.
Strong Financial Backing: Fully funded with US$ 113.3 million in cash (as of March 31, 2026) and supported by Agnico Eagle as a strategic shareholder.
Aggressive Exploration Program: Deploying up to 14 drill rigs to complete up to 100,000 meters of drilling in 2026, providing continuous catalyst flow.
Excellent Infrastructure: Located in an established mining camp contiguous to Aris Mining's Marmato project, with direct access to hydro power, water, and the Pan-American Highway.

Key Investment Risks

Exploration and Resource Risk: Pre-revenue company with no formal mineral resource estimate or economic studies completed to date.
Jurisdictional and Political Risk: Operations are concentrated in Colombia, exposing the company to potential regulatory shifts or permitting delays.
Dilution Risk: The filing of a C$ 500 million base shelf prospectus in May 2026 introduces potential long-term equity dilution.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to break ground on the exploration adit by Q4 2026 due to permitting or social license issues.
A significant drop in precious and base metal prices (gold, silver, copper) that impairs the economic viability of a future mining scenario.
Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in mid-2027 coming in significantly below the consensus expectation of 5 million gold-equivalent ounces.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.