Colgate-Palmolive Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryHousehold Products Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $73.54median of 5 methods · middle span $71-$87based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $84.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $67.4B Enterprise Value $75B Shares Outstanding 800.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Colgate-Palmolive combines leading global oral-care market shares with improving profitability and cash generation. In the second quarter of 2026, organic sales rose 2.4%, Base Business diluted EPS increased 8% to $0.99, gross profit margin expanded 140 basis points to 61.5%, and first-half operating cash flow reached $1.742 billion. The balanced view reflects modest 1%-4% full-year organic-sales guidance, a 0.4 percentage-point drag from the private-label pet-food exit, and a 5% decline in quarterly GAAP EPS despite adjusted growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$98.95 High · most bullish analyst$110.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0024% Organic growth falls below guidance, gross margin declines below 60%, or oral-care market share weakens. The divergence between declining GAAP EPS and growing Base Business EPS persists, reducing confidence in earnings quality and pressuring valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $98.9556% Matches the consensus meanOrganic sales remain within management's 1%-4% range, toothpaste leadership is maintained, and gross margin remains around 60% or better. Adjusted earnings continue to grow, but modest underlying sales growth limits material multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $110.0020% Organic growth moves toward the upper end of management's 1%-4% range, global oral-care shares remain resilient, and productivity and pricing sustain gross margin near or above the second-quarter level. Continued adjusted EPS growth and cash generation support valuation expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |