Coinbase Global Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Coinbase Global Inc

COINNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Exchanges and Data

Beta (adjusted)2.56

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $189.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $49.9B

Enterprise Value $47.3B

Shares Outstanding 272.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Coinbase entered the second half of 2026 with strengthening competitive and product indicators: crypto trading-volume market share reached a record 10.3%, average USDC held in Coinbase products reached $20 billion, prediction-market activity more than doubled sequentially, and subscription and services represented 48% of net revenue. These gains support a more diversified platform thesis, but the Q2 release also characterized the market as challenging, while a July platform disruption demonstrated that infrastructure execution remains material as Coinbase expands across more products.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets29 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$95.00

Mean target$195.52

High · most bullish analyst$330.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$95.0020%

Crypto activity remains soft, Coinbase relinquishes recent market-share gains, USDC balances contract, and newer products fail to offset weaker trading economics. Additional material service disruptions could also impair customer trust and slow adoption across the expanding product surface.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$195.5260%

Matches the consensus mean

Market-share gains, stablecoin balances, and newer products continue to progress, but weak or volatile crypto-market activity tempers near-term operating momentum. Diversification improves resilience without eliminating cyclicality.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$330.0020%

Coinbase sustains or extends its record trading-volume share while the Everything Exchange broadens monetization beyond Bitcoin spot trading. Continued expansion in USDC, Base, prediction markets, derivatives, payments, and agentic-finance infrastructure produces a more durable revenue mix and reinforces network effects across consumers, institutions, and developers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Crypto trading-volume market share reached a record 10.3% in Q2 2026, up from 9.1% in Q1 and marking a third consecutive quarter of gains.
Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached $20 billion, while stablecoin transaction volume on Base increased sevenfold year over year.
Revenue sources continued to broaden: subscription and services represented 48% of Q2 net revenue, 88% of net revenue was outside Bitcoin spot trading, and prediction-market contracts and revenue grew 106% quarter over quarter.

Key Investment Risks

The Q2 release described market conditions as challenging, leaving operating momentum exposed to crypto trading activity despite diversification.
The stablecoin thesis relies materially on sustaining USDC balances, transaction activity, and Coinbase's participation in USDC economics.
A July 2026 configuration error caused an approximately 50-minute disruption affecting transfers, card transactions, onchain services, institutional activity, and developer products.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.