Cohu Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cohu Inc

COHUNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Equipment & Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $70.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $3.3B

Enterprise Value $3.4B

Shares Outstanding 47.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Feb 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cohu Inc. is positioned to benefit from a strong cyclical recovery in the semiconductor equipment sector, driven by rapid expansion in high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The company's proprietary thermal capabilities and advanced test handlers are seeing robust demand, as evidenced by a 57% year-over-year increase in orders in Q1 2026. Furthermore, the strategic shift toward higher-margin recurring software and services (such as DI-Core and the newly acquired Tignis platform) is expected to enhance long-term net margins and earnings stability, offsetting historical hardware cyclicality.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$65.00

Mean target$70.88

High · most bullish analyst$80.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$65.0020%

A prolonged downturn or slower-than-expected recovery in the automotive and industrial semiconductor segments offsets HPC gains. Customer concentration risks materialize, or qualifications for next-generation AI processors are delayed, keeping utilization rates depressed below 75% and limiting FY2026 revenue growth to under 10%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$70.8850%

Matches the consensus mean

Cohu successfully executes on its raised FY2026 HPC revenue outlook of $80 million to $100 million, supported by sequential test utilization recovery to over 80%. Full-year revenue grows by 20%-25% year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS turns positive to approximately $0.54, driven by sequential revenue growth of 15% in Q2 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$80.0030%

Accelerated qualification of the $750 million computing segment pipeline, particularly in HBM inspection (Neon platform) and next-generation AI datacenter processors, drives FY2026 revenue growth well above the guided 20%-25% range. Gross margins expand beyond 47% due to a highly favorable mix of recurring software subscriptions and high-margin consumables.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong order momentum with Q1 2026 orders up 57% year-over-year, led by a 163% surge in semiconductor test orders.
Expanding addressable market in AI-driven compute applications, now estimated at approximately $750 million.
High proportion of recurring revenue (60% in Q1 2026) providing a stable financial baseline during hardware cycles.
Robust balance sheet with $488.7 million in cash and investments, providing ample liquidity for strategic R&D and integration of acquisitions like Tignis.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to cyclical semiconductor capital expenditure cycles, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors.
Intense competition from larger, well-capitalized global players in the semiconductor test and handler markets.
Execution and integration risks associated with newly acquired software platforms (Tignis, Equiptest) and the transition to an AI-driven software business model.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

HPC revenue outlook for FY2026 revised downward below $80 million.
Quarterly gross margins falling consistently below 40% due to unfavorable product mix or pricing pressure.
Failure to convert the current 12 customer engagements in the computing segment into volume production orders.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.