Coherent Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Coherent Corp

COHRNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryElectronic Components

Beta (adjusted)1.73

Intrinsic Value $165.01median of 5 methods · middle span $116-$302based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $319.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $62.5B

Enterprise Value $64.6B

Shares Outstanding 195.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Coherent enters FY2027 with strong operating momentum: Q4 FY2026 revenue increased 34% year over year, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expanded, and management reported exceptional demand alongside new growth platforms and additional production capacity. The multiyear NVIDIA agreement, including a large purchase commitment and a $2 billion investment, strengthens demand visibility and funding for U.S. optical manufacturing. The principal counterweight is execution risk: substantial capacity must be added without sacrificing margin or returns, while the growth narrative is increasingly dependent on AI-datacenter spending.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$280.00

Mean target$410.76

High · most bullish analyst$480.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$280.0018%

Capacity additions are delayed or inefficient, AI-datacenter demand moderates, or customer concentration reduces pricing power. Revenue falls below $2.2 billion, non-GAAP gross margin falls below 39.5%, or non-GAAP EPS falls below $1.85, indicating that investment requirements are outrunning operating leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$410.7658%

Matches the consensus mean

Coherent delivers Q1 FY2027 revenue within $2.2-$2.4 billion, non-GAAP gross margin within 39.5%-41.5%, and non-GAAP EPS within $1.85-$2.05. AI-datacenter demand and production expansion support continued growth, but capacity investment and execution requirements limit confidence in incremental upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$480.0024%

Demand for AI optical connectivity remains above management's expectations, expanded capacity comes online efficiently, quarterly revenue exceeds the $2.4 billion top of Q1 FY2027 guidance, and non-GAAP gross margin moves above 41.5%. Coherent's broad photonics portfolio and NVIDIA relationship then support sustained above-plan growth and operating leverage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q4 FY2026 revenue reached $2.05 billion, up 34% year over year, while non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 40.2% and non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $1.74.
Management entered FY2027 citing exceptional customer demand, expanding production capacity, and multiple new growth platforms beginning to ramp as AI infrastructure shifts toward optical connectivity.
The multiyear NVIDIA agreement includes a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment, capacity rights, and a $2 billion investment supporting Coherent's R&D and U.S. manufacturing expansion.

Key Investment Risks

The outlook requires rapid manufacturing-capacity expansion, creating execution, yield, timing, and capital-allocation risk.
A larger dependence on AI-datacenter demand and a major strategic customer can increase exposure to customer concentration, technology transitions, and hyperscaler capital-spending cycles.
Failure to sustain gross-margin expansion while scaling capacity would weaken the expected conversion of revenue growth into EPS growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.