Cognex Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryScientific & Technical Instruments Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value $52.98median of 6 methods · middle span $48-$57based on filings through 5 Jul 2026 Market Price $62.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.5B Enterprise Value $10.2B Shares Outstanding 169M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cognex entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly revenue, substantial year-over-year margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth, and OneVision in general availability with hundreds of customers using the platform. The company nevertheless remains exposed to cyclical capital spending, large-customer purchasing patterns, tariffs, China and other international conditions, supply constraints, and execution risk in scaling its customer base. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$80.05 High · most bullish analyst$92.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $65.0024% Quarterly revenue or adjusted EBITDA margin falls below the lower end of guidance as cyclical demand, customer purchasing variability, tariffs, international conditions, supply constraints, or weaker product mix offset recent operating momentum. OneVision adoption also fails to produce sufficiently visible scaled deployments. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0556% Matches the consensus meanRevenue and adjusted EBITDA margin remain within the company's Q3 guidance ranges, while full-year results remain within the issued 2026 outlook. OneVision adoption progresses, but commercialization and industrial-cycle uncertainty warrant a balanced stance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $92.0020% Cognex performs near the upper ends of its Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance, sustains broad-based end-market demand, and converts OneVision's initial customer use into wider deployments. That combination would reinforce evidence that AI-enabled products, diversification, and operating-model productivity can support durable profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |