Coffee Holding Co Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods & Meats Beta (adjusted)1.28 Intrinsic Value $3.74median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $3.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.5M Enterprise Value $23.1M Shares Outstanding 5.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Jan 2027 Last ex-dividend10 Feb 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (NASDAQ: JVA) is a small-scale, integrated wholesale coffee roaster and dealer navigating a highly volatile commodity environment. While the company achieved a strong start to fiscal 2026, its second-quarter results were severely impacted by a rapid 25% decline in green coffee prices, which pressured sales and margins. Despite these headwinds, JVA has demonstrated improved operational efficiency by consolidating its manufacturing into a single East Coast facility and generating robust operating cash flow of $6.6 million in the first half of 2026. This cash flow has allowed the company to significantly reduce its line of credit. However, persistent material weaknesses in internal controls and high sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations warrant a cautious Hold recommendation until pricing stabilizes and internal controls are fully remediated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.2015% The bear case involves continued downward pressure or extreme volatility in green coffee prices, leading to further customer purchase delays and margin compression. Persistent internal control weaknesses could also lead to reporting delays or restatements, eroding investor confidence and pushing the stock toward its 52-week low. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.5060% The base case assumes green coffee prices stabilize near current levels, allowing JVA to maintain moderate profitability. The company continues to leverage its single East Coast manufacturing facility to sustain positive operating cash flow and further pay down its credit facility, while maintaining its annual dividend of $0.08 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $5.5025% The bull case is driven by a stabilization of green coffee commodity prices and the realization of higher margins from newly awarded business serviced at lower input costs. Additionally, further cost efficiencies from the closure of the Comfort Foods facility and successful integration of the Empire Coffee assets could accelerate profitability, driving the stock toward its 52-week high. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |