Codexis Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryLife Sciences Tools & Services Beta (adjusted)2.00 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $1.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $148.9M Enterprise Value $162.6M Shares Outstanding 94.1M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Codexis is transitioning from a technical proof-of-concept phase to commercial execution with its ECO Synthesis platform, which targets the scalable, enzymatic production of RNA therapeutics. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust top-line growth and narrowing losses driven by the Merck Technology Transfer Agreement, the company remains unprofitable with high cash burn. The stock represents a high-beta, high-volatility option in the biotechnology tools space. A Hold rating is appropriate until the company secures additional commercial-scale licensing agreements and demonstrates execution on its Hayward GMP facility retrofit. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$6.58 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0015% The sales pipeline fails to convert into meaningful commercial orders, and the Merck agreement revenue does not repeat. Permitting or construction delays at the Hayward facility push back operational timelines, increasing cash burn and forcing a dilutive capital raise before the end of 2027. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.0060% Codexis achieves its 2026 revenue guidance of $72M to $76M, heavily weighted toward the second half of the year. The Hayward GMP facility progresses through design and permitting, remaining on track for late 2027 operations. Cash reserves remain sufficient to fund operations through 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario $11.0025% Rapid commercial adoption of the ECO Synthesis platform leads to multiple high-value CDMO and licensing agreements. The Hayward GMP facility is completed ahead of schedule and under budget, driving high-margin product revenues and accelerating the path to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |