Codere Online Luxembourg S.A Dossier - Source-backed chat

Codere Online Luxembourg S.A

CDRONASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure

Beta (adjusted)0.63

Intrinsic Value $8.27median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $9.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $440.1M

Enterprise Value $399.8M

Shares Outstanding 45.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Codere Online is transitioning rapidly from a high-growth startup to a highly profitable, cash-generative online gaming leader in Spain and Latin America. Driven by its crown jewel market in Mexico and a strong omnichannel synergy with its parent company's physical footprint, the company is well-positioned to capture market share with lower customer acquisition costs than digital-only peers. With zero financial debt and a robust cash position, the company represents a unique pure-play on Latin American digital sports betting and casino growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$12.67

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.5020%

The 50% excise tax rate in Mexico severely compresses operating margins, and intense marketing competition from global entrants in Latin America drives up customer acquisition costs, causing Adjusted EBITDA to fall below the guided range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$10.0050%

Codere Online successfully delivers on its FY 2026 guidance of €235-245 million in Net Gaming Revenue and €15-20 million in Adjusted EBITDA. Growth in Mexico and Spain remains steady, and the company maintains its debt-free balance sheet while executing its share buyback program.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$14.0030%

Mexico continues its exponential growth trajectory, outpacing tax headwinds, while Spain's market acceleration sustains double-digit growth. Omnichannel conversion of parent retail customers drives customer acquisition costs significantly lower, leading to Adjusted EBITDA exceeding the high end of the €15-20 million guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong omnichannel synergy with parent Codere Group's extensive physical footprint, lowering customer acquisition costs.
Leading position in high-growth Latin American markets, particularly Mexico.
Robust balance sheet with zero financial debt and over €50 million in cash.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory and taxation volatility, such as the Mexican excise tax increase to 50%.
Intense competition from well-capitalized global gaming operators.
Foreign exchange fluctuations as revenues are generated in local currencies (MXN, EUR) but reported in USD.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant drop in Mexican active player growth or net gaming revenue.
Failure to achieve positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2026.
Adverse regulatory changes or further tax hikes in Spain or core Latin American markets.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.