Cocrystal Pharma Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cocrystal Pharma Inc

COCPNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.27

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $22M

Enterprise Value $14.9M

Shares Outstanding 19.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cocrystal Pharma is a high-risk, high-reward clinical-stage biotechnology company leveraging a proprietary structure-based drug discovery platform to target highly conserved replication enzymes of major viral pathogens. The investment thesis centers on the clinical advancement of CDI-988, a first-in-class oral 3CL protease inhibitor for norovirus that recently received FDA Fast Track designation and is currently in an active Phase 1b human challenge study. While the company faces severe going-concern risks with a limited cash runway of $4.7 million as of Q1 2026, the appointment of veteran biopharma executive James Sapirstein as CEO in June 2026 signals a strategic pivot toward commercialization, business development, and clinical execution. Success in the ongoing norovirus challenge study or a favorable resolution of the $6.3 million CRO arbitration regarding its influenza candidate CC-42344 could serve as massive near-term valuation catalysts.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$9.00

High · most bullish analyst$10.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.5020%

In the bear case, the CDI-988 Phase 1b norovirus challenge study yields inconclusive efficacy results or unexpected safety signals, severely damaging the asset's clinical profile. The CRO arbitration is resolved unfavorably with no refund, forcing the company to write off the CC-42344 oral influenza program or face prohibitive costs to restart the trial. Unable to secure non-dilutive funding or attract a partner, Cocrystal is forced to execute highly dilutive equity raises at penny-stock levels, leading to severe shareholder dilution or potential restructuring.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$6.6755%

In the base case, the Phase 1b norovirus challenge study for CDI-988 is completed successfully, confirming safety and showing encouraging antiviral activity trends, which supports progression to Phase 2. The company continues to experience high cash burn and relies on gradual, dilutive drawdowns from its $150 million S-3 shelf registration to maintain operations, keeping the going-concern warning active. The CRO arbitration remains ongoing or settles for a partial refund, and the relaunch of the CC-42344 influenza trial is delayed into late 2026 or early 2027. Valuation is supported by the consensus analyst target reflecting the unique value of the norovirus asset.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$10.0025%

In the bull case, CDI-988 demonstrates robust proof-of-concept efficacy in the Phase 1b norovirus challenge study, showing a statistically significant reduction in clinical symptoms and viral shedding. This triggers a lucrative global licensing partnership with a major pharmaceutical firm, providing substantial upfront non-dilutive funding. Concurrently, Cocrystal wins its arbitration against the CRO, recovering the $6.3 million refund, which fully funds the relaunch of the CC-42344 Phase 2a influenza trial. Under CEO James Sapirstein's leadership, the company successfully taps its S-3 shelf registration at highly favorable valuations, eliminating going-concern doubts.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class oral antiviral candidate (CDI-988) targeting norovirus, a major global unmet need with an estimated $60 billion annual economic burden and no approved therapeutic treatments.
FDA Fast Track designation granted to CDI-988 in April 2026, enabling rolling NDA reviews and frequent regulatory communication.
Proprietary structure-based drug discovery platform targeting highly conserved viral replication regions, minimizing the risk of drug-resistant mutations.
New leadership under CEO James Sapirstein, a veteran executive with a track record of 23 product launches and extensive business development experience.

Key Investment Risks

Severe going-concern risk with only $4.7 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, and an ongoing cash burn rate of approximately $8.2 million annually.
Clinical trial execution risks, highlighted by the previous inconclusive CC-42344 Phase 2a influenza trial conduct issues that led to an active legal dispute and arbitration with a CRO.
High reliance on early-stage pipeline candidates (CDI-988 in Phase 1b and CC-42344 needing a new Phase 2a) with no commercialized products or recurring product revenues.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of CDI-988 to show a reduction in clinical symptoms or viral shedding in the Phase 1b norovirus challenge study.
An unfavorable ruling in the CRO arbitration resulting in zero recovery of the $6.3 million disputed funds.
Inability to raise additional capital through equity or partnerships before cash reserves are depleted, leading to insolvency or delisting from Nasdaq.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.