Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV ADR

KOFUBLBolsa Mexicana de Valores

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $199.72median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $105.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 89% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+89%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $22.2B

Shares Outstanding 210.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) represents a highly defensive investment opportunity with a dominant 50% market share in the Latin American beverage sector. Despite short-term margin compression in Mexico due to excise tax impacts and high IT/restructuring expenses, the company's top-line engine remains resilient, supported by strong volume growth in South America (Guatemala, Colombia, and Brazil). The stock trades at an attractive valuation of approximately 15-16x forward earnings, offers a secure dividend yield of ~4.3%, and is poised to benefit from long-term digital B2B integration and upcoming catalysts like the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$106.00

Mean target$120.36

High · most bullish analyst$133.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$106.00

Persistent volume contraction in Mexico, failure of digital B2B integration to offset rising fixed and labor costs, and severe currency translation headwinds from depreciating South American currencies, compressing operating margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$120.36

Matches the consensus mean

KOF achieves a 6.5% to 6.7% revenue compound annual growth rate in Mexican Pesos. SAP IT efficiencies successfully materialize, offsetting rising labor costs and stabilizing net margins around 8.1%, assuming the peso remains stable. Valued at a historical 15x P/E multiple.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$133.00

Strong macroeconomic recovery in Mexico, rapid monetization of the 2026 FIFA World Cup activating premium packaging, and accelerated IT/SAP efficiency gains that expand net margins to 9.0%. The market awards KOF a premium 17x P/E multiple.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Untouchable market position with a 50% market share in Latin American Coca-Cola franchise territories.
Strong pricing power and favorable demand elasticity, allowing the company to pass inflation directly to consumers.
Robust digital B2B integration and omnichannel platform driving long-term distribution efficiencies.
Attractive shareholder returns with a secure dividend yield of over 4% paid in quarterly installments.

Key Investment Risks

Short-term margin squeeze from high IT infrastructure spending and restructuring costs.
Regulatory and tax headwinds, such as excise tax hikes in Mexico impacting local volumes.
Foreign exchange volatility and negative translation effects when converting local currencies to Mexican Pesos.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.