COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc

CCEPNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustrySoft Drinks

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $95.12median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$185based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $100.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $44.3B

Enterprise Value $54.1B

Shares Outstanding 456M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Last ex-dividend15 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CCEP entered the second half of 2026 with constructive operating momentum: H1 comparable FX-neutral revenue rose 6.1%, comparable FX-neutral operating profit rose 8.1%, and days-adjusted volume increased 2.2%. Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance for 3%-4% revenue growth, approximately 7% operating-profit growth and at least €1.7 billion of comparable free cash flow. Portfolio innovation, expanding cooler coverage, productivity initiatives and growth in Southeast Asia support the outlook. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because the consumer environment remains challenging, foreign exchange is a headwind.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.53

Mean target$112.65

High · most bullish analyst$120.64

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.5320%

Consumer affordability pressure intensifies, European away-from-home demand weakens, foreign exchange remains adverse and Southeast Asian execution underperforms. Revenue growth falls below the FY26 guidance floor and operating leverage deteriorates as cost inflation and investment outpace productivity benefits.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$112.6555%

Matches the consensus mean

CCEP delivers within its reaffirmed FY26 ranges, with comparable FX-neutral revenue growth of 3%-4% and operating-profit growth of approximately 7%. Volume growth, pricing, mix and productivity offset affordability pressure, foreign-exchange headwinds and the residual impact of exiting Suntory alcohol distribution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.6425%

Execution exceeds the reaffirmed outlook as zero-sugar, sports and energy products sustain strong growth, cooler additions improve distribution and mix, and Southeast Asian expansion contributes incremental volume and margin. Productivity and disciplined cost management allow operating-profit growth to remain above revenue growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

H1 2026 comparable FX-neutral revenue and operating profit grew 6.1% and 8.1%, respectively, while days-adjusted volume increased 2.2%.
Growth categories were strong: H1 sports volume increased 12.1%, energy increased 18.6%, and Coke Zero Sugar increased 10.7%.
Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance, including at least €1.7 billion of comparable free cash flow and approximately 7% comparable FX-neutral operating-profit growth.

Key Investment Risks

Management described the consumer environment as challenging and identified uncertainty associated with the situation in the Middle East.
Current spot rates implied an approximately 40-basis-point FY26 revenue headwind and an approximately 10-basis-point operating-profit headwind.
Germany continued to face consumer affordability pressure, while the exit from Suntory alcohol distribution weighed on Australia and New Zealand comparisons.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.