Coca-Cola Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustrySoft Drinks Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $74.43median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$121based on filings through 3 Apr 2026 Market Price $86.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $370.4B Enterprise Value $398.9B Shares Outstanding 4.3B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coca-Cola entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter worldwide unit case volume grew 5%, organic revenue grew 6%, comparable EPS grew 11%, and management raised full-year comparable EPS growth guidance to 9%-10%. The company also gained global value share and expects approximately $12.4 billion of 2026 free cash flow. However, the August 28 closing price of $89.66 already reflects substantial execution success, while the unresolved IRS dispute, Asia Pacific mix pressure, higher input costs and brand-execution risks limit the margin of safety. The probability-weighted scenarios therefore support a Hold rather than a new-money Buy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$94.70 High · most bullish analyst$104.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0020% Consumer affordability pressure, weaker Asia Pacific mix, higher input costs or execution setbacks reduce volume and earnings growth below guidance. An unfavorable development in the IRS litigation or another material brand impairment would compound the valuation reset. Base CaseCentral scenario $94.7055% Matches the consensus meanWorldwide volume remains positive and the company delivers approximately 5% organic revenue growth and 9%-10% comparable EPS growth for 2026, but subsequent growth normalizes as currency benefits fade and marketing and input costs absorb part of operating leverage. Bull CaseUpside scenario $104.0025% Sustained global volume growth, continued Coca-Cola Zero Sugar momentum, favorable currency translation and operating leverage could keep earnings growth above the raised outlook. If value-share gains broaden and input-cost pressure moderates, the shares could support a premium defensive-growth valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |