CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.34 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $26.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $315.5M Enterprise Value $323M Shares Outstanding 13.3M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc. (COSO) is a high-performing Southeast-focused bank holding company demonstrating robust organic growth, particularly in core deposits and niche commercial lending lines (such as senior housing, marine, and government-guaranteed lending). The bank's strong net interest margin, solid asset quality, and newly initiated capital return programs (dividends and a $15 million share buyback) position it as an attractive small-cap financial services play. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$30.50 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0015% Intense deposit competition forces the bank to raise deposit rates, compressing the net interest margin below 3.40%. Simultaneously, a slowdown in the Southeast real estate market leads to rising nonperforming assets and higher provision expenses, limiting EPS growth and stalling share buybacks. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.5060% Matches the consensus meanThe bank maintains a stable net interest margin around 3.55% to 3.60%, supported by steady core deposit inflows that offset competitive pricing pressures. Loan growth continues at a high single-digit annualized pace, and credit quality remains benign, supporting steady earnings growth and the execution of the $15 million share repurchase plan. Bull CaseUpside scenario $33.0025% Accelerated expansion in high-growth Southeast markets (Charleston, Savannah, Atlanta) combined with rapid core deposit growth allows the bank to completely phase out higher-cost alternative funding. This expands the net interest margin beyond 3.70% and drives double-digit loan growth, pushing EPS significantly above consensus. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |