Coastal Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $40.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $619.7M Shares Outstanding 15.3M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Coastal Financial Corp (CCB) represents a unique hybrid investment opportunity in the banking sector, combining a highly profitable, dominant traditional community bank in the Puget Sound region with a high-growth Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) platform (CCBX). While traditional regional banks face deposit headwinds and margin compression, CCB continues to drive massive balance sheet expansion and fee income growth through its digital fintech partnerships. Although elevated compliance investments and partner economics have introduced near-term margin and expense pressures, the underlying operational momentum—evidenced by a 21.6% sequential deposit growth and a 22.3% sequential increase in BaaS fee income in Q1 2026—positions the company for substantial long-term earnings power as major programs scale. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$49.50 High · most bullish analyst$53.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $47.00 Intensified regulatory scrutiny on BaaS partnerships leads to prolonged onboarding delays, higher-than-expected compliance costs, or forced termination of existing programs. Margin compression accelerates due to unfavorable partner economics or deposit outflows, while credit quality in the consumer loan portfolio deteriorates, leading to downward revisions in earnings estimates. Base CaseCentral scenario $49.50 Matches the consensus meanCCB successfully navigates near-term regulatory and margin pressures, maintaining a strong consolidated net interest margin of around 7.00% (and ~3.90% net of BaaS loan expenses). Steady onboarding of 7-10 new programs annually supports double-digit asset and deposit growth, while the core community bank continues to deliver stable, high-quality credit performance in the Puget Sound market. Bull CaseUpside scenario $53.00 Rapid onboarding of the active CCBX pipeline and successful scaling of major fintech programs drive fee income and low-cost deposit growth far exceeding expectations. Operating leverage improves dramatically as compliance and technology investments peak, leading to a sharp expansion in net profit margins and a return to premium valuation multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |