CNX Resources Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

CNX Resources Corp

CNXNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas E&P

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $148.34median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$259based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $31.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 371% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+371%)

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Market Cap $4.7B

Enterprise Value $6.9B

Shares Outstanding 141.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Feb 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CNX Resources Corp is a highly disciplined, low-cost natural gas producer in the Appalachian Basin with an exceptional track record of free cash flow generation (25 consecutive quarters as of Q1 2026). The company's aggressive share buyback program has reduced its share count by approximately 37% since 2020, significantly boosting per-share metrics. However, its extensive hedging program (81% of 2026 volumes hedged at $3.64/MMBtu) limits its upside in a bullish commodity price environment, and the stock currently trades close to consensus fair value. Furthermore, regulatory risks in Pennsylvania and a transition to a new executive leadership team warrant a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$32.00

Mean target$37.73

High · most bullish analyst$48.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent oversupply in the Appalachian Basin, pipeline capacity constraints, or a warm winter depress unhedged natural gas prices. Additionally, increased regulatory scrutiny in Pennsylvania leads to operational delays or higher compliance costs, while hedging losses drag down net income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

CNX continues to execute its low-cost operating strategy, maintaining steady production volumes of 605-620 Bcfe and generating approximately $525 million in free cash flow in 2026. The company uses its free cash flow to systematically reduce net debt and opportunistically repurchase shares, supporting the stock price near current levels despite flat commodity markets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading low-cost structure with fully burdened cash costs of $0.95/Mcfe in Q1 2026, providing a strong defensive buffer.
Unmatched track record of capital discipline, delivering 25 consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow.
Aggressive share buyback program that has reduced outstanding shares by 37% since peak 2020 levels, driving long-term per-share value.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of assets in the Appalachian Basin, exposing the company to regional pipeline bottlenecks and local regulatory risks.
Extensive hedging program limits participation in near-term natural gas price rallies.
Potential operational and strategic execution risks associated with the transition to new CEO Alan Shepard as of January 1, 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in NYMEX natural gas prices below $2.50/MMBtu affecting unhedged volumes and long-term hedge pricing.
Significant operational disruptions or regulatory shutdowns of key Appalachian assets.
A material deviation from the company's strict capital allocation framework, such as embarking on large, dilutive M&A transactions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.