CNO Financial Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Life Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $25.07median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $53.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $5B Shares Outstanding 93.6M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CNO Financial Group is demonstrating strong operational momentum, characterized by 15 consecutive quarters of sales growth and 13 consecutive quarters of producing agent growth as of Q1 2026. The company's strategic focus on the underserved middle-income retirement market, combined with robust performance in its long-term care (LTC) portfolio and favorable interest rate environments for fixed indexed annuities, positions it for sustained profitability. With a solid capital return program and an operating ROE of 12.2% (excluding significant items), CNO offers an attractive risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$52.00 Mean target$53.75 High · most bullish analyst$56.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $52.00 A sharp compression in interest rates reduces investment yields, while LTC claims experience reverts to less favorable historical patterns, pressuring margins. Escalating insurance policy benefits and high leverage (long-term debt-to-capital ratio at 61.7% on a statutory basis) limit financial flexibility and slow down share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.75 Matches the consensus meanCNO maintains steady execution of its middle-market strategy, achieving its full-year 2026 consensus EPS target of $4.36 and revenue of $4.0 billion. The company continues to return capital to shareholders through consistent share buybacks ($60 million in Q1 2026) and regular dividend increases, while holding company liquidity remains comfortably above its $150 million minimum target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $56.00 Accelerated growth in annuity and life/health policy sales driven by a rapidly aging U.S. demographic (11,000 Americans turning 65 daily). Favorable interest rates continue to support high new money yields (above 6%), driving expansion in net investment income. LTC claims remain consistently favorable, allowing CNO to outperform peers and raise its 2027 ROE targets ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |