CNH Industrial NV Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $6.97median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$10based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 46% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.7B Enterprise Value $45.6B Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CNH presents a balanced cyclical setup. Second-quarter revenue increased, management narrowed 2026 expectations toward the upper end of its prior ranges, and dealer-inventory normalization, aging equipment fleets and more balanced new-versus-used pricing offer early recovery signals. Conversely, Agriculture and Construction profitability remained pressured by tariffs, regional mix and weak farmer economics, while receivables more than 30 days past due rose to 4.4%. The 2030 strategy offers meaningful operating and technology upside, but execution and cycle timing remain uncertain. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$13.35 High · most bullish analyst$21.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0025% Low crop prices, elevated farm input costs, trade uncertainty and tariffs prolong weak equipment demand. Additional margin pressure, deteriorating South American credit performance or failure to offset manufacturing and sourcing costs causes Agriculture profitability to fall below guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.3556% Matches the consensus meanAgricultural markets remain near trough conditions through 2026, but disciplined production, pricing and cost execution keep results within the narrowed outlook. Recovery develops gradually as dealer inventories normalize, with long-term technology and quality initiatives contributing incrementally. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.0019% Dealer inventories normalize faster, replacement demand from aging fleets strengthens, and improved equipment pricing relationships support an agricultural-cycle recovery. Construction volume growth, sourcing efficiencies, quality improvements and greater Precision Technology penetration accelerate progress toward CNH's long-term objectives. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |