CMS Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $69.45median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $63.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20B Enterprise Value $30.5B Shares Outstanding 308.9M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CMS Energy retains a constructive regulated-utility earnings profile: management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.83-$3.90, introduced 2027 guidance of $4.08-$4.17 and maintained a 6%-8% long-term adjusted EPS growth objective with confidence toward the high end. The decision to exit non-utility renewables development should simplify the portfolio and reduce financing needs, while the proposed resource plan offers substantial regulated investment opportunities. Offsetting factors include weaker second-quarter and year-to-date adjusted EPS, regulatory and execution risk surrounding the resource plan. A Hold recommendation therefore reflects favorable long-term operating direction but insufficient primary-source valuation evidence for a more positive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$68.00 Mean target$80.00 High · most bullish analyst$87.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.0025% The bear case assumes full-year adjusted EPS falls below guidance, weaker quarterly performance persists, regulatory approval materially reduces or delays proposed capacity, or the NorthStar exit produces greater costs and fewer financing benefits than expected. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0055% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes CMS Energy delivers within its 2026 and 2027 adjusted EPS guidance ranges, progresses near the middle-to-upper portion of its long-term 6%-8% growth objective, and executes the NorthStar simplification without a material disruption. The proposed resource plan advances but remains subject to regulatory review and normal utility-project execution risk. Bull CaseUpside scenario $87.0020% The bull case assumes adjusted EPS reaches the upper end of 2026 guidance, 2027 guidance is achieved, long-term growth trends toward the upper end of 6%-8%, the NorthStar development exit reduces financing complexity, and regulators substantially approve the proposed generation and clean-energy program. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |