CME Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CME Group Inc

CMENASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data

Beta (adjusted)0.49

Intrinsic Value $264.15median of 6 methods · middle span $191-$468based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $265.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $95.3B

Shares Outstanding 362.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CME Group entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 was its second-highest-volume second quarter, July average daily volume reached a record 27 million contracts, market-data revenue reached a quarterly record, and reported margin efficiencies reinforced the economic value of its clearing network. Continued product expansion offers incremental growth avenues.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$230.00

Mean target$284.13

High · most bullish analyst$330.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$230.0018%

Lower market volatility reduces trading and clearing activity, market-data revenue retreats from its Q2 record, and pending product launches face slower adoption or regulatory delays. These conditions would weaken the operating momentum evident through July 2026.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$284.1358%

Matches the consensus mean

Volumes moderate from exceptional first-half levels but remain structurally healthy, market-data revenue retains most of its recent gains, and new products contribute gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$330.0024%

Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty sustains elevated hedging demand, market-data revenue remains near record levels, and new equity, retail-sized, round-the-clock, and compute-related contracts broaden participation. Strong network effects and capital efficiencies support continued operating momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Trading activity remained strong after the record first quarter, with second-highest Q2 volume and record July average daily volume.
Record market-data revenue and more than $95 billion of reported daily margin efficiencies demonstrate revenue diversification and customer value beyond contract volume alone.
The 2026 launch pipeline spans equity factors, single stocks, retail-sized contracts, expanded round-the-clock trading, and compute futures.

Key Investment Risks

Trading and clearing activity could normalize if interest-rate, equity, commodity, and geopolitical uncertainty declines.
Market-data revenue could retreat from the Q2 2026 record, reducing an important source of revenue diversification.
Several announced products remain subject to regulatory review, and commercial adoption may be slower than their launch cadence suggests.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.