CMB.Tech NV Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $79.85median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$147based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $19.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 307% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+307%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.7B Enterprise Value $7B Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CMB.TECH NV (formerly Euronav) has successfully transitioned into a diversified, future-proof maritime group with a fleet of approximately 250 vessels. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from a robust tanker cycle and strong spot market exposure (80% of shipping days in 2026), while simultaneously leading the industry's decarbonization efforts through hydrogen and ammonia dual-fuel technologies. Prudent capital allocation, highlighted by opportunistic vessel sales and a flexible dividend policy, supports a highly attractive risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.10 Mean target$19.45 High · most bullish analyst$21.50 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.10 A global economic slowdown depresses shipping demand, causing spot charter rates to fall. Slower-than-expected regulatory support for green fuels delays the profitability of low-carbon assets, while heavy 2026 CapEx commitments temporarily strain liquidity. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.45 Matches the consensus meanTanker rates remain solid and dry bulk markets show moderate improvement. CMB.TECH successfully executes its remaining 2026 newbuild deliveries, after which CapEx commitments decline sharply, unlocking substantial free cash flow for debt reduction and shareholder distributions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.50 A full bull market in dry bulk combined with sustained high tanker spot rates drives operational free cash flow well above $1.05 billion. Rapid regulatory adoption of carbon pricing accelerates the commercial viability of CMB.TECH's low-carbon fleet, leading to a significant valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |