Cloudflare Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInternet Services & Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.43 Intrinsic Value $131.63median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $351.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 63% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-63%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $125B Enterprise Value $125.3B Shares Outstanding 355.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cloudflare entered the second half of 2026 with accelerating reported growth: Q2 revenue increased 36% year over year, current RPO grew 35%, and dollar-based net retention reached 120%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.864-$2.870 billion. These indicators support a favorable operating outlook, but Q2 GAAP operating loss widened to $205.7 million, GAAP gross margin declined to 71.8%, the company is executing an approximately 1,100-person restructuring, and it subsequently priced $2.175 billion of convertible notes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$160.00 Mean target$333.55 High · most bullish analyst$400.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $160.0017% Revenue falls below the lower bounds of management's guidance, net retention weakens, or the workforce restructuring disrupts sales and engineering execution. Continued gross-margin compression, large GAAP losses, or future conversion-related dilution from the 2031 notes would further weaken the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $333.5556% Matches the consensus meanCloudflare delivers within its Q3 and full-year 2026 revenue guidance while growth gradually normalizes and non-GAAP profitability remains positive. The restructuring is completed substantially on schedule, but gross-margin pressure and execution risk temper the benefit of accelerating demand. Bull CaseUpside scenario $400.0027% Revenue growth remains near the Q2 pace, current RPO and net retention stay strong, and adoption of Cloudflare's developer and agentic-AI offerings supports continued enterprise expansion. Successful completion of the restructuring improves operating leverage without impairing product development or sales capacity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |