Clorox Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Clorox Co

CLXNYSE

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryHousehold & Personal Products

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $118.52median of 5 methods · middle span $80-$159based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $80.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.8B

Enterprise Value $11.1B

Shares Outstanding 122.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Clorox enters fiscal 2027 with its U.S. ERP implementation completed, a larger health-and-hygiene platform following the GOJO acquisition, and guidance for a return to reported and organic growth. The recovery is not yet fully proven: fiscal 2026 organic sales fell 8%, fiscal 2027 organic-growth guidance includes more than 3.5 percentage points from lapping the ERP-related inventory drawdown, and management still expects cost volatility and value-seeking consumer behavior. A neutral stance is appropriate pending evidence that underlying demand, GOJO integration and cost savings can sustain growth without sacrificing margin.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$77.00

Mean target$101.71

High · most bullish analyst$155.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$77.0020%

Value-seeking consumer behavior, commodity and logistics inflation, or GOJO integration friction leave organic sales below 3.5%, gross margin below 42%, and adjusted EPS below $5.70. Such an outcome would indicate that ERP normalization and acquisition-related growth are not translating into sufficient underlying operating momentum.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$101.7160%

Matches the consensus mean

Clorox performs within fiscal 2027 guidance: reported sales rise 13%-14%, organic sales grow 3.5%-4.5%, gross margin remains near 42%, and adjusted EPS reaches $5.70-$6.00. The ERP comparison and GOJO provide substantial reported growth, but difficult consumer conditions and elevated costs limit underlying upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$155.0020%

GOJO integration and an expanded innovation pipeline produce growth above the top of the 3.5%-4.5% organic-sales outlook, while cost savings more than offset inflation and lift gross margin above approximately 42%. Adjusted EPS consequently exceeds $6.00 and the completed ERP program begins producing durable operating benefits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The completed GOJO acquisition adds Purell and broader institutional health-and-hygiene capabilities; Clorox stated that health and hygiene now represents more than half of company sales.
Completion of the five-year U.S. ERP implementation removes a major transition overhang and creates an opportunity for better data, operating efficiency and execution.
Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for 13%-14% reported sales growth, 3.5%-4.5% organic growth and 3%-8% adjusted EPS growth.

Key Investment Risks

Fiscal 2026 organic sales declined 8%, and the fiscal 2027 organic outlook includes more than 3.5 percentage points from lapping the prior-year ERP inventory drawdown.
Management expects continued cost volatility and value-seeking consumer behavior, while fiscal 2027 gross margin is expected to remain near 42%.
GOJO creates integration, B2B operating-model, customer-concentration, regulatory and financing risks that could delay anticipated benefits.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.