Clipper Realty Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Clipper Realty Inc

CLPRNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryResidential REITs

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $3.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $132.1M

Shares Outstanding 42.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend26 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Clipper Realty Inc. (NYSE: CLPR) presents a mixed investment profile characterized by strong operational performance in its core residential portfolio, offset by severe headwinds in its commercial office segment. The termination of the New York City lease at 250 Livingston Street has significantly impacted Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) and triggered loan stress, leading the company to cease supporting ongoing operations at the property. While residential rental rates and occupancy remain robust, near-term cash generation concerns and balance-sheet leverage warrant a cautious Hold stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$2.50

Foreclosure on 250 Livingston Street leads to write-downs, and the company faces difficulties refinancing other upcoming debt maturities in a high-interest-rate environment. Residential demand softens in NYC, leading to margin compression and a potential dividend cut.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$3.50

The residential portfolio continues to experience steady rent growth and high occupancy, particularly with the lease-up of Prospect House. However, commercial office vacancies and the default on the 250 Livingston Street loan drag down overall profitability and cash flow, keeping AFFO depressed in the near term.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong residential demand in New York City submarkets driving a 9% year-over-year increase in residential revenue.
High proportion of operating debt (89%) fixed at a low average rate of 3.87% with non-recourse asset-by-asset financing.
Successful lease-up of the 240-unit Prospect House development in Brooklyn.

Key Investment Risks

Severe cash flow impact from the termination of the NYC government lease at 250 Livingston Street.
Elevated balance-sheet risk and high leverage, with ongoing net losses.
Exposure to strict New York City rent stabilization regulations limiting rent growth on regulated units.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal foreclosure or unfavorable settlement regarding the 250 Livingston Street property.
A reduction in the quarterly dividend of $0.095 per share.
A material decline in NYC residential occupancy rates.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.