Cleveland-Cliffs Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc

CLFNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySteel

Beta (adjusted)1.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $11.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $6.5B

Enterprise Value $14.2B

Shares Outstanding 584M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Apr 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cleveland-Cliffs is a highly cyclical, vertically integrated North American steel producer undergoing an operational recovery. While the company benefits from protective trade policies (such as the 50% Section 232 tariffs) and a dominant position in the automotive steel and grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) markets, it continues to face near-term headwinds including negative profitability, elevated leverage, and high energy costs. The investment case hinges on a successful turnaround in domestic steel pricing, cost-reduction initiatives, and the monetization of infrastructure/grid modernization trends.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$11.80

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Automotive production slows down and domestic steel pricing deteriorates due to oversupply or a technical easing of Section 232 tariffs. Operational challenges, such as persistent high energy costs and integration friction from recent acquisitions, keep operating margins negative. Free cash flow remains under pressure, leading to further credit downgrades and limited capacity to reduce the company's heavy debt burden.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The domestic steel market experiences gradual stabilization with steady automotive demand, allowing Cleveland-Cliffs to meet its 2026 shipment guidance of 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons. Cost-saving measures offset inflationary pressures, leading to positive free cash flow starting in Q2 2026. Negotiations with POSCO progress constructively, reinforcing long-term growth and balance sheet strength.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market position as the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America and the sole domestic producer of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) critical for power grid transformers.
Strong, long-term relationships with major automotive OEMs, highlighted by being named General Motors' 2025 Supplier of the Year for the ninth time.
High vertical integration, including control of iron ore mines and low-carbon HBI production, which secures feedstock and stabilizes pricing relative to scrap-dependent peers.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to cyclical end-markets, particularly automotive and construction, which are sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.
Elevated operational leverage and debt burden, as reflected in the Fitch downgrade of its Issuer Default Rating to 'B+'.
Vulnerability to volatile energy costs and extreme weather events, which negatively impacted Q1 2026 earnings by $80 million.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal termination of strategic partnership talks with POSCO without an alternative capital-raising mechanism.
A significant reduction or repeal of Section 232 steel tariffs by the U.S. administration, exposing domestic mills to low-cost foreign imports.
Failure to achieve positive free cash flow in Q2 2026, indicating persistent structural cost issues.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.