Clearway Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Renewable Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $27.07median of 5 methods · middle span $18-$31based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $29.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.2B Enterprise Value $16B Shares Outstanding 246.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Clearway Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CWEN) represents a premier vehicle for stable and growing dividend income, backed by a highly diversified and primarily contracted clean energy portfolio of approximately 13.6 GW. Despite near-term operational headwinds in its wind segment (specifically resource underperformance at the Alta facility), the company's solar and battery storage fleets continue to perform robustly. Clearway's growth is highly visible, supported by an accelerated capital deployment plan of $3 billion through 2029 (a 20% increase from prior projections) and a massive 12.7 GW late-stage sponsor pipeline. This positions the company to comfortably achieve its 2027 CAFD per share target of $2.70+ and strive for the top end or better of its 2030 target of $2.90 to $3.10 per share. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$43.50 High · most bullish analyst$58.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent meteorological underperformance across the wind fleet, coupled with supply chain delays or grid interconnection bottlenecks, slows down project CODs. Higher-for-longer interest rates increase corporate refinancing costs for bonds maturing in 2031, compressing margins and forcing dividend growth to the lower end of the 5-5.5% range. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates near-term wind resource volatility through its turbine enhancement programs, restoring historical availability in the second half of 2026. It executes on its $420 million committed capital plan for 2026 and $900 million for 2027, driving CAFD to meet the reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $470-$510 million and achieving the 2027 target of $2.70+ CAFD per share. Dividend growth continues at the target rate of 5-8% annually. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |