Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc

CWANNYSE

SectorTechnology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $24.56Price as of 24 Jun 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $7.3B

Enterprise Value $8.1B

Shares Outstanding 320.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Clearwater Analytics is a leading provider of cloud-native investment accounting and portfolio analytics software, managing over $10 trillion in global assets. The company is currently in the final stages of being acquired by an investor group led by Permira and Warburg Pincus for $24.55 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately $8.4 billion. Stockholders approved the merger on May 6, 2026, and the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, pending final regulatory approvals (such as Australia's FIRB). Because the stock trades extremely close to the acquisition price of $24.55, there is limited upside or downside, making a 'Hold' recommendation appropriate for investors awaiting the transaction's completion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$24.00

Mean target$24.44

High · most bullish analyst$24.55

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The merger fails to close due to unexpected regulatory blockages (e.g., failure to obtain Australia FIRB approval), causing the stock to fall back to its standalone fundamental valuation. On a standalone basis, the company faces integration risks from its recent acquisitions and a transition to GAAP net losses, which could compress its multiple.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The take-private merger closes successfully at the agreed-upon price of $24.55 per share in cash during the second quarter of 2026. This represents the most probable outcome given that shareholder approval has already been secured and early antitrust clearance under the HSR Act was granted.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Definitive take-private agreement at $24.55 per share provides a clear liquidity event and downside protection.
Exceptional top-line momentum with Q1 2026 revenue up 74% year-over-year to $221.2 million, driven by organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
Highly sticky business model with a 97% gross revenue retention rate and 108% net revenue retention rate.
Industry-leading technology platform with rapid deployment of generative AI tools, driving non-GAAP gross margins of 78.1%.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory approval risk, specifically pending clearance from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).
Opportunity cost of capital, as the stock trades near the acquisition price with minimal remaining upside.
Integration complexity from the rapid onboarding of Enfusion, Beacon, and Bistro acquisitions, which has contributed to recent GAAP net losses.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to obtain necessary regulatory clearances, leading to the termination of the merger agreement.
Material adverse changes in Clearwater's business operations or financial condition that allow the buyer group to walk away or renegotiate the purchase price.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.