Clear Secure Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value $54.56median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$237based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.7B Enterprise Value $5.5B Shares Outstanding 135.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) is demonstrating powerful operating leverage as its secure identity platform scales beyond aviation. The company's core CLEAR+ subscription service continues to expand, supported by strategic partnerships with American Express and major airlines. Simultaneously, the rapid rollout of eGates and high-margin concierge services is enhancing the member experience and driving higher average revenue per user (ARPU). The most significant growth catalyst lies in CLEAR1, its B2B enterprise and government identity verification solution, which saw bookings grow approximately fivefold year-over-year in Q1 2026. With a robust balance sheet, zero debt, and a substantial cash pile, Clear Secure is highly positioned to capitalize on the rising demand for secure, frictionless identity verification in an increasingly complex digital and physical security landscape. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$62.60 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.00 The bear case is characterized by a slowdown in aviation travel volumes or a deceleration in CLEAR+ member sign-ups due to pricing saturation. Increased competition from alternative biometric identity providers or changes in TSA security protocols could disrupt dedicated lane access. Additionally, slower-than-expected enterprise sales cycles for CLEAR1 could limit B2B revenue contribution, causing Adjusted EBITDA margins to contract toward 25% and limiting free cash flow growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.60 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes steady 12-15% growth in Active CLEAR+ members, supported by the ongoing rollout of TSA PreCheck enrollment services and the expansion of premium concierge offerings. CLEAR1 continues its steady expansion into commercial and government verticals. Operating margins improve gradually due to platform economies of scale, with Adjusted EBITDA margins stabilizing around 32%. Free cash flow meets or slightly exceeds the raised full-year 2026 guidance of $465 million. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.00 The bull case is driven by accelerated enterprise adoption of CLEAR1 across healthcare, workforce, and federal government verticals, combined with a faster-than-expected rollout of eGates to 100% of the airport network. This scenario assumes high-margin B2B contracts scale rapidly, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins past 35% and driving full-year free cash flow well above the raised guidance of $465 million. Strong cash generation supports aggressive share repurchases and special dividends, leading to significant multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |