Clarus Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Products Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $5.45median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $3.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $129.4M Enterprise Value $100.5M Shares Outstanding 38.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Clarus Corp is navigating a complex transitional phase characterized by a comprehensive strategic review of alternatives, operational simplification, and near-term headwinds in its Adventure segment (particularly in Australia). While the company maintains a highly attractive, debt-free balance sheet with solid cash reserves and has demonstrated strong gross margin expansion in its core Outdoor segment (Black Diamond), the sharp downward revision of its fiscal 2026 guidance and ongoing legal expenses warrant a cautious stance. Investors should hold shares pending the outcome of the strategic review led by Jefferies LLC. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.90 Mean target$3.34 High · most bullish analyst$4.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.5020% The strategic review concludes without a transaction, disappointing the market. Macroeconomic headwinds in Australia worsen, further depressing the Adventure segment, while promotional pressures return to the US outdoor retail market, eroding Black Diamond's gross margin gains. Legal expenses exceed the projected $3 million, pushing Adjusted EBITDA below guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.5055% Clarus continues to operate as a standalone public entity, executing its turnaround strategy. The Outdoor segment's strong order book supports modest revenue growth in the second half of 2026, offsetting the Australian Adventure segment's weakness. The company achieves the midpoint of its revised 2026 guidance (sales of $250 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million) while maintaining its debt-free status. Bull CaseUpside scenario $5.0025% The strategic review results in a premium buyout of the company's iconic brands (Black Diamond, Rhino-Rack, MAXTRAX), which have historically commanded high private market valuations. Operational simplification and inventory clearing in the Outdoor segment accelerate, leading to a faster-than-expected recovery in profitability and free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |