Claros Mortgage Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMortgage REITs Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $1.21Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $170.7M Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 141.3M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG) is navigating a challenging credit cycle in the commercial real estate (CRE) market, characterized by elevated provisions for credit losses and a high volume of non-accrual loans. While the company has made significant progress in de-risking and deleveraging—resolving $608.8 million of UPB in Q1 2026 and reducing its net debt-to-equity ratio to 1.7x—earnings remain under severe pressure. The GAAP net loss of $0.39 per share and distributable loss of $0.52 per share in Q1 2026 highlight ongoing asset quality headwinds. A 'Hold' recommendation is warranted as the company aggressively cleans up its balance sheet, but dividend sustainability and the pace of portfolio recovery remain key concerns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.50 Mean target$2.58 High · most bullish analyst$2.75 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent high interest rates lead to further defaults in the transitional CRE loan portfolio, requiring additional heavy CECL provisions. Collateral values of REO assets deteriorate, leading to realized losses that erode book value and threaten liquidity covenants. Base CaseCentral scenario The company continues its orderly workout of stressed transitional CRE loans, gradually reducing its watchlist exposure and stabilizing net interest income. Deleveraging efforts keep leverage ratios stable, and liquidity remains sufficient to meet debt covenants, though earnings recovery is slow. Bull CaseUpside scenario Claros Mortgage Trust is positioned to benefit from an improving environment for increased originations, indicating potential growth in its income-producing loan portfolio. The company anticipates strong borrower demand for transitional and flexible capital in the commercial real estate sector, which may support its long-term performance. Additionally, a favorable regulatory backdrop for specialty finance lenders enhances the company's operational environment, further underpinning a positive outlook for the firm. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |