Clarivate Plc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $7.13median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $1.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 346% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+346%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 624.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Clarivate is executing a multi-year strategic turnaround under its Value Creation Plan, shifting its business mix toward highly predictable, subscription-based revenue (currently 89% of sales) and away from low-margin transactional streams. While operational execution is stabilizing—evidenced by sequential organic ACV acceleration and robust Adjusted EBITDA margins exceeding 41%—the company remains constrained by a heavy debt burden of approximately $4.34 billion. The primary near-term catalyst is the potential sale of its Life Sciences & Healthcare segment, which could dramatically accelerate deleveraging. However, until a transaction is finalized and organic revenue growth demonstrates a sustained positive trajectory, a Hold rating is warranted due to ongoing AI disintermediation concerns and execution risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$2.97 High · most bullish analyst$5.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0020% The sale of the Life Sciences & Healthcare segment falls through or is executed at a fire-sale price, leaving the company with high leverage and limited financial flexibility. Meanwhile, generative AI alternatives commoditize legacy data offerings, leading to customer churn, a deceleration in organic ACV growth below 1%, and margin compression due to pricing pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.9755% Matches the consensus meanClarivate continues to make steady, incremental progress under its Value Creation Plan. Organic ACV growth stabilizes in the 2.0% to 2.5% range, and the recurring revenue mix reaches 90%. The company achieves its full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance of approximately $400 million, utilizing it to retire debt and selectively repurchase shares. The LS&H sale process remains active but takes longer to close, keeping leverage elevated in the near term. Bull CaseUpside scenario $5.5025% The sale of the Life Sciences & Healthcare segment is completed at a premium valuation, allowing Clarivate to immediately retire over $1 billion in debt and reduce net leverage toward its 2.5x target. Concurrently, rapid adoption of its newly launched generative AI assistants (e.g., Web of Science and Cortellis AI tools) drives subscription upsells, pushing organic ACV growth above 3% and expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 44%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |