Civeo Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Civeo Corp

CVEONYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryDiversified Support Services

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $33.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $348.9M

Enterprise Value $536.9M

Shares Outstanding 10.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Feb 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Civeo Corp is on the cusp of a meaningful operational inflection, driven by robust demand in the Australian Bowen Basin and a stabilizing Canadian oil sands market. Following activist engagement from Engine Capital, management has aggressively pivoted toward capital returns, repurchasing approximately 21% of outstanding shares since early 2025. With a newly upsized and extended credit facility through 2030, a net leverage ratio of 2.2x, and a raised floor on FY2026 revenue guidance, Civeo offers a highly compelling risk-reward profile with substantial valuation re-rating potential.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$37.00

Mean target$38.00

High · most bullish analyst$39.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0020%

Delays in Canadian project FIDs beyond 2027, combined with labor shortages and cost inflation in Australia, pressuring margins and limiting free cash flow generation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$38.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the core Australian take-or-pay contracts, gradual recovery in Canadian lodge occupancy, and completion of the expanded share buyback program.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$37.0030%

Securing major Canadian LNG infrastructure contracts and rapid deployment of idle mobile camp assets, combined with sustained high occupancy in Australia, drives EBITDA well above guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong contract-backed revenue model with multi-year take-or-pay agreements in Australia.
Aggressive capital return strategy, having repurchased over 21% of shares outstanding since the start of 2025.
Improved financial flexibility following the April 2026 credit facility amendment extending maturity to 2030.

Key Investment Risks

High geographic and sector concentration in commodity-linked regions (Bowen Basin and Canadian Oil Sands).
Sensitivity of earnings quality to working capital swings and seasonal slowdowns.
Foreign exchange translation risks, particularly regarding the Australian Dollar.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Cancellation or non-renewal of major take-or-pay contracts in Australia.
Significant escalation of net leverage above 3.0x due to aggressive debt-funded buybacks or acquisitions.
Prolonged delays in Canadian LNG infrastructure final investment decisions (FIDs).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.